Capabilities
37 predictions spanning 2026-2047
2026
2027
- A major AI company announces AGI
- A misaligned AI system achieves superintelligence
- AI reaches Nobel-level expertise across fields
- A cheap AI system becomes a superhuman coder
- An AI system becomes a superhuman AI researcher
- AI systems complete hours-long software projects
- AGI arrives by 2027
- Machines have 10% chance to beat humans at all tasks
- AI handles hours-to-weeks tasks autonomously
- A major lab starts online-learning post-training
- AI agents handle a wide range of week-long tasks
- AI models reach 55% on undergraduate FrontierMath
- AI uses digital tools and lab equipment
2028
2029
2030
- AI systems complete days-long software projects
- AI systems complete month-long professional tasks
- AI systems do remote-worker jobs at human level
- AI capabilities largely plateau
- AI improves across specialized domains
- AI systems become useful digital assistants
- AGI arrives around 2030
- Superintelligence arrives by 2030
- AI models reach 75% on undergraduate FrontierMath
- AGI arrives around 2030