Capabilities
49 predictions spanning 2026-2047
2026
2027
- A major AI company announces AGI
- A misaligned AI system achieves superintelligence
- AGI has 9-23% chance by end of 2027
- AI reaches Nobel-level expertise across fields
- Powerful AI arrives as soon as 2027
- A cheap AI system becomes a superhuman coder
- An AI system becomes a superhuman AI researcher
- AI systems complete hours-long software projects
- AGI arrives by 2027
- Machines have 10% chance to beat humans at all tasks
- AI handles hours-to-weeks tasks autonomously
- A major lab starts online-learning post-training
- AI agents handle a wide range of week-long tasks
- AI models reach 55% on undergraduate FrontierMath
- AI uses digital tools and lab equipment
2028
- Superhuman AI is publicly released
- A misaligned AI becomes wildly superintelligent
- AI matches top human experts at nearly all cognitive tasks
- AI surpasses the best human software engineers
- Weak general AI becomes publicly available
- A safer AI exceeds top human experts
- AI builds payment processing websites
- AI makes songs indistinguishable from artists
2029
2030
- AI systems complete days-long software projects
- AI systems complete month-long professional tasks
- AI systems do remote-worker jobs at human level
- AI capabilities largely plateau
- AI improves across specialized domains
- AI systems become useful digital assistants
- AGI arrives around 2030
- Superintelligence arrives by 2030
- AI matches skilled professionals on six of eight cognitive tasks
- AI capabilities advance substantially by 2030
- AI models reach 75% on undergraduate FrontierMath
- AGI arrives around 2030
- AI runs a small online business with no employees
- Rapid AI progress has 14% chance by 2030