Why does it matter?
A two-year arrival would put expert-level AI inside the planning horizon of decisions governments and companies are making now.
Direct quote
As I wrote in Machines of Loving Grace, powerful AI could be as little as 1–2 years away, although it could also be considerably further out. Exactly when powerful AI will arrive is a complex topic that deserves an essay of its own, but for now I’ll simply explain very briefly why I think there’s a strong chance it could be very soon.
Dario Amodei