Why does it matter?
The scenario behind this paper's most dramatic numbers is one most experts think probably will not happen.
Direct quote
On average, economists assigned the highest probability to the moderate scenario (47.4%), with the remaining probability split between the slow (38.6%) and rapid (14.0%) scenarios. The rapid scenario was judged to be the least likely according to all groups, including AI policy and industry professionals (here grouped together under 'AI experts'), superforecasters, and the general public.
Forecasting Research Institute