When Will AI?
Timeline
Forecasters
Categories
METR
5 predictions spanning 2026-2033
40% pessimistic
60% optimistic
2026
AI reaches month-long task horizon
8.8 significance
by
METR
·
Capabilities
2027
AI agents handle a wide range of week-long tasks
7.6 significance
by
METR
·
Capabilities
2028
OpenAI compute growth slows around 2028
8.8 significance
by
METR
·
Compute
2029
AI can complete month-long software tasks
8.8 significance
by
METR
·
Capabilities
2033
AI reaches month-long tasks at 50% reliability
8.8 significance
by
METR
·
Capabilities