AI outcompetes PhDs at problem solving

6.8 significance by Leopold Aschenbrenner Capabilities December 2026

Why does it matter?

Outcompeting PhDs would mark a shift from useful assistants to systems that rival expert problem solvers.

Direct quote

By 2025/2026 or so I expect the next truly shocking step-changes; AI will drive $100B+ annual revenues for big tech companies and outcompete PhDs in raw problem-solving smarts.

Leopold Aschenbrenner