Anthropic Institute
8 predictions spanning 2027-2030
2027
2030
- AI lifts US GDP 8.6% above trend
- AI has 39% public odds of a Nobel-level discovery
- AI matches skilled professionals on six of eight cognitive tasks
- AI cuts cognitive employment 4%
- AI is used on 40% of the work tasks it can do
- AI runs a small online business with no employees
- Workers displaced by AI take eight months to find new jobs