Leopold Aschenbrenner

Original source

16 predictions spanning 2025-2030

2025

AI outpaces many college graduates
5.6 significance by Leopold Aschenbrenner Capabilities

2026

AI outcompetes PhDs at problem solving
6.8 significance by Leopold Aschenbrenner Capabilities
Big tech reaches $100B AI revenue
6.8 significance by Leopold Aschenbrenner Business

2027

AGI arrives by 2027
8.0 significance by Leopold Aschenbrenner Capabilities
Annual AI investment reaches $1 trillion
8.0 significance by Leopold Aschenbrenner Compute
Government AGI project gets underway
8.0 significance by Leopold Aschenbrenner Government
AI agents become drop-in remote workers
6.8 significance by Leopold Aschenbrenner Jobs
AI creates $10T companies
6.8 significance by Leopold Aschenbrenner Economy
Effective compute rises five orders of magnitude
5.6 significance by Leopold Aschenbrenner Compute

2028

AI research progress speeds up 3x
8.0 significance by Leopold Aschenbrenner Research
AI widely automates software engineering
8.0 significance by Leopold Aschenbrenner Jobs
Intelligence explosion gets underway
8.0 significance by Leopold Aschenbrenner Research
Training clusters cost hundreds of billions
6.8 significance by Leopold Aschenbrenner Compute

2029

AI progress runs 10x faster
8.0 significance by Leopold Aschenbrenner Research

2030

Superintelligence arrives by 2030
8.0 significance by Leopold Aschenbrenner Capabilities
Trillion-dollar cluster reaches 100 GW
6.8 significance by Leopold Aschenbrenner Compute