Why does it matter?
The authors most associated with a 2027 AGI now give it under one-in-four odds.
Direct quote
Each author assigned weights to the 3 AC anchoring methods which the model aggregates into an overall forecast. We also re-evaluated AI 2027's predictions; reality seems to be going about 70-90% as fast as AI 2027 predicted. Incorporating all of the above, our latest timelines forecasts (conditional on going as fast as is technically feasible)
AI Futures Project