Why does it matter?
Chollet's shortened timeline matters because even a skeptical LLM critic now sees AGI as only years away.
Direct quote
So I would say my timelines have uh shortened a bit uh I'm I'm also very curious to to know about your timelines as well but let's talk about about my timeline so um I'm I couldn't really say how many years away I thought we were you know uh last year but probably 10 yearsish um and now I think it's probably you know five fiveish so my timelines have shortened quite a bit then again you know when we ask you know when when is EGI going to happen it's it's a bit of an ambiguous question because there are there are several milestones you could be uh looking at there's like the moment where there's a team out there in the world that starts working on the right ideas right uh then there's the moment where um somebody builds and and tests for the first time an AGI like system and people start wondering well could this be a GI and then there's the moment where this system uh starts being deployed at scale and there can be a lot of lag actually between uh each milestone
Francois Chollet