AI progress runs 10x faster

8.0 significance by Leopold Aschenbrenner Research December 2029

Why does it matter?

At 10x speed, AI progress would be fast enough to overwhelm normal oversight and planning cycles.

Direct quote

2028/29: 10x+ pace of progress → superintelligence. That is, we go from AGI to superintelligence in perhaps a year.

Leopold Aschenbrenner