Why does it matter?
Even the transformative path looks ordinary for another year, so a quiet 2027 does not rule anything out.
Direct quote
Second, almost all of the divergence comes after 2027, a year and a half from the mid-2026 anchor, because the scenarios share today's readings and separate only as the reach and use of AI diverge. Third, the mechanics are the same in every scenario: output rises, cognitive employment shrinks, and employment in all other occupations grows, and how much unemployment the reallocation creates depends both on its size and on how easily displaced workers find jobs outside their old occupations.
Anthropic Institute