Why does it matter?
The typical American's guesses about AI, taken literally, add up to a boom bigger than the internet's.
Direct quote
The public's answers deliver outcomes close to the substantial change scenario. The median American expects a capable AI, one that handles six of the eight tasks by 2030, but expects diffusion to be limited. AI is deployed on two-fifths of the tasks it could perform, it augments rather than automates half the time, and it raises the productivity of tasks impacted by AI by around 55 percent. In the model, the medians of the outcomes across respondents are close to the substantial scenario: GDP is 8.6 percent above its no-AI path and the unemployment rate in both cognitive occupations and in the broader economy is around 4.6 percent.
Anthropic Institute