AI has 39% public odds of a Nobel-level discovery

7.8 significance by Anthropic Institute Science December 2030

Why does it matter?

An AI that makes a prize-worthy discovery on its own would move the pace of science from human speed to machine speed.

Direct quote

Views on how fast AI improves are split. By 2030, 52 percent expect AI to run an online business with no employees and 39 percent expect a Nobel-level discovery, while 40 percent say such discoveries will never happen.

Anthropic Institute
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