U.S. unemployment stays near 5% through 2050

6.6 significance by Forecasting Research Institute Jobs December 2050

Why does it matter?

AI's labor damage shows up as people giving up on work, not as a spike in the unemployment rate.

Direct quote

Unemployment Rate. Economists expect the overall unemployment rate to remain relatively stable, even under the rapid scenario. For 2030, they forecast 5.0% for the unconditional, 5.0% for the slow, 5.0% for the moderate, and 6.0% for the rapid. For 2050, their estimates are 5.0% (unconditional), 5.0% (slow), 6.0% (moderate), and 6.0% (rapid). AI policy and industry professionals, however, project higher long-term unemployment under the rapid scenario: for 2050, they forecast 8.0%.

Forecasting Research Institute