Why does it matter?
If workers take 45% of output instead of 55%, the gains from AI accrue to whoever owns the machines.
Direct quote
Economists project a slight downward trend in the share of economic output going to workers, particularly if AI advances quickly. For 2030, they forecast 54.3% for unconditional scenario, 55.0% for the slow, 54.0% for the moderate, and 52.0% for the rapid, compared to a 2025 baseline of 55.48%. For 2050, this drops to 50.0% (unconditional), 52.0% (slow), 50.0% (moderate), and 45.0% (rapid). AI experts, however, expect a drastic collapse in the labor share under the rapid 2050 scenario, forecasting just 40.0%.
Forecasting Research Institute