Why does it matter?
A drop below 60% would be the first since the 1970s, and unlike the Covid dip it would not bounce back.
Direct quote
By the beginning of 2030, the median economist forecasts LFPR of 61.0%, a decrease from the January 2025 rate of 62.6%. This forecast has already been affected by economists' expectations about AI capabilities: conditional on the slow scenario, the median forecast is 61.5%, 0.5 p.p. higher. However, when asked to assume the rapid scenario, their forecast drops to 59.3%.
Forecasting Research Institute