Why does it matter?
Roughly one and a half in every hundred adults leaving the workforce is the baseline these experts already assume.
Direct quote
By the beginning of 2030, the median economist forecasts LFPR of 61.0%, a decrease from the January 2025 rate of 62.6%. This forecast has already been affected by economists' expectations about AI capabilities: conditional on the slow scenario, the median forecast is 61.5%, 0.5 p.p. higher. However, when asked to assume the rapid scenario, their forecast drops to 59.3%.
Forecasting Research Institute