Why does it matter?
Even in the branch where AI beats humans at most tasks, growth rises by about a point, not tenfold.
Direct quote
In contrast, the rapid scenario is associated with significantly higher expected GDP growth for both time horizons. For 2025–2029, the median economist predicted annual GDP growth to be around 3.3% (with median 10th and 90th percentile forecasts of 1.2% and 5.5%), and superforecasters showed a similar median (3.7%, 2.0–6.0%). AI experts' rapid scenario median is slightly higher in this period, at 3.7%.
Forecasting Research Institute