U.S. adopts no major AI economic policy by 2026

6.6 significance by Forecasting Research Institute Government December 2026

Why does it matter?

Even the experts who expect AI to reshape work do not expect Washington to act on it this year.

Direct quote

All cohorts assigned low probabilities to real-world implementation of any policy by the end of 2026. Economists' median estimates ranged from sub-1% (UBI, Job Guarantee) to 15.0% (Manhattan Project for AI), reflecting a pervasive view that near-term political obstacles are considerable, regardless of a policy's perceived merit.

Forecasting Research Institute