Rapid AI progress lifts GDP growth to 3.5%

7.8 significance by Forecasting Research Institute Economy December 2050

Why does it matter?

Even the transformative branch tops out near post-war growth rates, not the explosive takeoff some forecasters expect.

Direct quote

This result fits a broader pattern we observe under the rapid scenario in which economists forecast large shifts—GDP growth of 3.5%, LFPR falling to 55.0%, wealth inequality at 80.0%—but shifts that still have historical parallels, such as GDP growth post-WWII, or the LFPR before women entered the workforce en masse, or pre-WWII inequality.

Forecasting Research Institute