Why does it matter?
Productivity is where AI's economic payoff should first appear, and experts see only a modest bump by 2030.
Direct quote
Median forecasts are homogenous across groups, clustering tightly for the unconditional scenario around 1.0% (superforecasters and the general public)–1.2% (economists and AI experts) for 2030 and 1.0%–1.7% for 2050, with economists at 1.5%. Under the rapid scenario, forecasts roughly double relative to the unconditional baseline, growing to 1.9%–2.0% for 2030 and 2.2%–2.5% for 2050.
Forecasting Research Institute