Why does it matter?
Experts who expect big AI capability gains still do not expect them to show up in growth numbers by 2030.
Direct quote
Across all groups, unconditional forecasts for 2030 were clustered tightly around the current rates, spanning from 2.4% to 2.5%. By 2050, unconditional medians remain in roughly the same range, ranging from the economists' prediction of 2.5% to AI experts' prediction of 3.0%. However, disagreement between groups, as well as uncertainty within groups, slightly increases (as reflected in the shaded regions). These forecasts suggest that most respondents do not expect strong trends of acceleration in GDP growth absent major shifts.
Forecasting Research Institute