Why does it matter?
If compute growth slows, capability timelines may stretch even if algorithms keep improving.
Direct quote
Figure 5 plots the projected compute path, along with the historical path we described in previous sections. The 'Compute Trend Continues' line shows estimated trend of compute if OpenAI compute continues to grow at the 2018-2025 rate, while the 'OpenAI Compute Projection + Extrapolation' grows at a similar rate until about 2028 at which point compute growth slows.
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